Sunday, January 27, 2013

Engadget Podcast 328 - 01.24.13

We swear, CES is officially behind us. Yay! Wait, it's earnings season. In this episode, Darren joins the crew to pound through the numbers -- Nokia, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Logitech and Netflix are all in the scope of Engadget's analyzing eye. Beyond that, D explains the perils of the NYSE, Tim gets really stoked about an upcoming McLaren supercar and Brian finds similarities between the Pebble smartwatch and Bluetooth earpieces. Naturally, we delve deeper into some of the big news in tech as well. Catch it in audio form below, with video after the break.

Hosts: Tim Stevens, Darren Murph, Brian Heater

Producer: Joe Pollicino

Hear the podcast

Earnings

01:17 - Apple announces Q1 2013 earnings: record $54.5 billion in revenue, 47.8 million iPhones and 22.9 million iPads sold
03:05 - Apple's Q1 2013 earnings reveal Mac and iPod sales down year-over-year
11:18 - Google announces Q4 2012 earnings: impressive revenues of $14.42 billion, excluding Motorola Home
15:00 - Microsoft reports Q2 2013 earnings: posts record revenue of $21.5 billion
19:57 - Nokia makes a 2012 Q4 profit of $585 million, sells 4.4 million Lumia handsets
22:22 - Netflix Q4 earnings show 2 million new customers streaming in the US, 6 million total internationally
24:53 - Logitech Q3 earnings reveal plans to sell off Harmony remote, video security divisions

Other topics

28:46 - Mozilla reveals Firefox OS Developer Preview Phone
31:24 - Microsoft Surface Pro on sale February 9th in the US and Canada, starts at $899
43:40 - Atari files for bankruptcy, hopes to survive by selling off Pong and other assets
45:38 - Pebble smartwatches begin shipping to backers this afternoon, iOS app still pending (update: app ready)

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Leave us a voicemail: (423) 438-3005 (GADGET-3005)
E-mail us: podcast at engadget [dot] com

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Source: http://feeds.engadget.com/~r/weblogsinc/engadget/~3/89FS1vW9f7M/

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Saturday, January 26, 2013

Brooke Shields signs up for a hitch on Lifetime's "Army Wives"

LOS ANGELES (TheWrap.com) - Brooke Shields has signed up for the Air Force - or at least the Air Force as it's portrayed on "Army Wives."

"Pretty Baby" star Shields will join the cast of the Lifetime series for its seventh season, the network said Thursday.

Shields will play Katherine "Kat" Young, a brash, brilliant Air Force colonel and crack C-17 pilot who clashes with Gen. Michael Holden (Brian McNamara) shortly after arriving at Joint Base Marshall Bring.

But after Young and Holden's Air Force-Army rivalry gets underway, Holden discovers that Young has a tragic past -- and more in common with him than he first thought.

The ABC Studios-produced "Army Wives" returns for its seventh season March 10 at 9 p.m. with a drastically revamped cast. In addition to Shields, singer/actress Ashanti, Torrey DeVitto of "Pretty Little Liars," Bring It On" alum Elle McLemore and singer Jesse McCartney have joined the cast. Meanwhile, Kim Delaney has departed the series, and former series regular Sally Pressman will only appear "in several episodes" of the new 13-episode season.

"We're all very excited about season seven, in which a new tribe emerges from the shadow of tragedy," executive producer Jeff Melvoin said of the upcoming season on Wednesday.

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/brooke-shields-signs-hitch-lifetimes-army-wives-205343185.html

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Researchers Will Restore Damaged Depth Perception with Electronic Eyes

Our depth perception doesn't work without two eyes. However an estimated 285 million people worldwide suffer from some form of visual impairment in at least one theirs. The loss of sight in just one eye also means the loss of one's ability to accurately judge short distances. However, a team of researchers have devised an ingenious solution to restore binocular vision. More »


Source: http://feeds.gawker.com/~r/gizmodo/full/~3/t9NC4zVEi9Y/researchers-will-restore-damaged-depth-perception-with-electronic-eyes

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Nine Financial Resolutions For 2013 - Bad Credit Auto Loans

Less than a month into the New Year we offer up some tips from the Illinois CPA Society to strengthen your finances that also apply to consumers with poor credit

Sharing some useful tips

At Auto Credit Express we?ve spent the past twenty years helping car buyers with credit problems find those new car dealers that can give them their best opportunities for approved auto loans. Along the way we?ve tried to educate them on the high risk car loans process ? things we?ve learned from experience.

But we?re also not above passing on someone else?s good ideas when it comes to credit repair and managing finances, especially when they?re timely as well as particularly good. Point in fact: we came across an article by the Illinois CPA Society a few years ago and we?ve decided to share portions of it again.

Here are some excerpts from it:

Your Financial Fitness

The Illinois CPA Society recommends these nine resolutions to bolster your financial standing and keep it healthy.

1. Slim down your spending

Keep track of the amount of money you spend and take time to think about why you spend the amounts that you spend. Do you spend more when stressed, tired or hungry? Learn to avoid situations which might lead to overspending, and always think twice before buying. It?s not just how much you make but how much you spend that most influences your finances.

2. Be Honest

When estimating monthly expenses, consider typical monthly spending amounts. If you normally spend $300 on groceries, don?t write down ?$200? in your grocery category. Write down ?$300? and then aim for $200. Underestimating will get you in trouble.

3. Stick to a budget

Maintaining a budget and careful tracking of your spending are the only effective ways to keep tabs on your cash flow. Once you see where your money is going, you can make better choices on how best to spend less and save more. Resist the urge to abandon your budget, especially in the face of negative comments from friends and family.

4. Work off debt

Eliminating your debt can seem like an overwhelming task, especially if you?ve been shackled with it for some time. However, like all tasks, it starts with an action plan and small steps. First, you should outline a very specific strategy for accomplishing this goal. It needs to consist of more than ?I am going to spend less.? Second, consider using a credit counseling service or setting personal limits for your credit cards each month. Paying off your debt may end up taking more than a year or two, but having a clear action plan and asking yourself each day what you can do to reduce your dependence on credit cards will go a long way in making your 2009 finances more healthy.

5. Flex your money knowledge

Financial planning is a major step towards achieving financial security. It can help you become better prepared for whatever life throws at you. Make yourself aware of basic issues such as your net worth, when your debts need to be paid off, your retirement goals, and your capital needs to buy house/car/appliances. Get smart about your money and teach your children how to use it and save it.

6. Set Goals and Priorities

You will never hit the target if you don?t know what your goal is. Identify and prioritize your financial goals and when you would like to achieve them by. For instance, do you know when you want to buy a house and its cost, what it will cost you for your child?s education 20 years from now, or your retirement expenses 10 years from now?

7. Exercise caution and emphasize safety

Focus on creating a financial safety net; save for emergencies. Generally, you should have an emergency fund to cover six months worth of living expenses in the event you lose your job or suffer a serious illness.

8. Keep your records in shape

Keeping financial records in order can save you time, money and trouble in the event of an emergency. Have photos and videos of everything you own and keep them in a safe place. Store permanent records such as birth certificates, property deeds, insurance policies, wills, power of attorney and other important documents in a safe, fireproof location. Make sure your spouse, family and executor know where these documents are stored. Copies of these documents and other financial records should be kept in a clearly marked filing system in your home.

9. Get a Finance Coach

January is an ideal time to meet and develop a financial plan with your CPA advisor. Outline some short and long term goals together.

As we see it

It?s hard not to agree with the Illinois CPA Society that the New Year is a good time to take the following advice: step back and assess your financial situation for the coming year and resolve to make it as good as you can.

It?s also a good time for us to remind you that at Auto Credit Express we match applicants that have experienced car credit issues with new car dealers that can offer them their best opportunities for auto loan approvals.

So if you?re ready to take that next step, you can begin the process by filling out our online auto loans application.

Tags: Credit Repair, ilinois cpa society

Source: http://www.autocreditexpress.com/blog/2013/01/26/nine-financial-resolutions-for-2013/

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Friday, January 25, 2013

Syrian forces escalate offensive in Homs

In this image taken from video obtained from the Shaam News Network, which has been authenticated based on its contents and other AP reporting, smoke rises from buildings due to heavy shelling in Daraa, Syria, on Thursday, Jan. 24, 2013. (AP Photo/Shaam News Network via AP video)

In this image taken from video obtained from the Shaam News Network, which has been authenticated based on its contents and other AP reporting, smoke rises from buildings due to heavy shelling in Daraa, Syria, on Thursday, Jan. 24, 2013. (AP Photo/Shaam News Network via AP video)

BEIRUT (AP) ? Syria's army unleashed a barrage of rocket and artillery fire on rebel-held areas in a central province Friday as part of a widening offensive against fighters seeking to oust President Bashar Assad. At least 80 people were killed in fighting nationwide, according to activist groups.

The United Nations said a record number of Syrians streamed into Jordan this month, doubling the population of the kingdom's already-cramped refugee camp to 65,000. Over 30,000 people arrived in Zaatari in January ? 6,000 in the past two days alone, the U.N. said.

The newcomers are mostly families, women, children and elderly who fled from southern Syria, said Melissa Fleming, spokeswoman for the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. She said the UNHCR was working with the Jordanian government to open a second major camp nearby by the end of this month.

Many of the new arrivals at Zaatari are from the southern town of Daraa, where the uprising against Assad first erupted nearly two years ago, the Britain-based Save the Children said Friday.

Five buses, crammed with "frightened and exhausted people who fled with what little they could carry," pull up every hour at the camp, said Saba al-Mobasat, an aid worker with Save the Children.

The exodus reflected the latest spike in violence in Syria's civil war. The conflict began in March 2011 after a peaceful uprising against Assad, inspired by the Arab Spring wave of revolutions that toppled leaders in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen, turned violent.

Activists said the army recently brought in military reinforcements to the central province of Homs and launched a renewed offensive aimed at retaking patches of territory that have been held by rebels for months.

An amateur video posted online by activists showed rockets slamming into buildings in the rebel-held town of Rastan, just north of the provincial capital, Homs. Heavy gunfire could be heard in the background.

Another video showed thick black and gray smoke rising from a building in the besieged city. "The city of Homs is burning ... day and night, the shelling of Homs doesn't stop," the narrator is heard saying.

Troops also battled rebels around Damascus in an effort to dislodge opposition fighters who have set up enclaves in surrounding towns and villages. The troops fired artillery shells Friday at several districts, including Zabadani and Daraya, according to the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

Another activist group, the Local Coordination Committees, said regime warplanes carried out airstrikes on the suburb of Douma, the largest patch of rebel-held ground near Damascus.

The Observatory, which like the LCC relies on a network of activists around Syria, said at least 80 people were killed in violence across the country Friday, including 11 in Homs.

Other video showed devastation in the Damascus neighborhood of Arbeen, following what activists said were two airstrikes there. A bleeding, wounded man can be seen being helped out of the rubble of the destroyed building. The videos appeared consistent with Associated Press reporting on the fighting.

Last month, the UNHCR said it needed $1 billion to aid Syrians in the Mideast, and that half of that money was required to help refugees in Jordan.

The agency says 597,240 refugees have registered or are awaiting registration with the UNHCR in Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and Egypt. Some countries have higher estimates, noting many Syrians have found accommodations without registering, relying on their own resources and savings.

In a rare gesture, Syria's Interior Ministry called on those who fled the country during the civil war to return, including regime opponents. It said the government will help hundreds of thousands of citizens return whether they left "legally or illegally."

Syrian opposition figures abroad who want to take part in reconciliation talks will also be allowed back, according to a ministry statement carried late Thursday by the state SANA news agency.

If they "have the desire to participate in the national dialogue, they would be allowed to enter Syria," it said.

The proposed talks are part of Assad's initiative to end the conflict that started as peaceful protests in March 2011 but turned into a civil war. Tens of thousands of activists, their family members and opposition supporters remain jailed by the regime, according to international activist groups.

Opposition leaders repeatedly have rejected any talks that include Assad, insisting he must step down. The international community backs that demand, but Assad has clung to power, vowing to crush the armed opposition.

More than 60,000 people have been killed since the conflict began, according to the U.N.

Activists also said two cars packed with explosives blew up near a military intelligence building in the Syrian-controlled part of the Golan Heights, killing eight. Most of the dead were members of the Syrian military, the Observatory said.

The Syrian government had no comment on the attacks, which occurred Thursday night in the town of Quneitra, and nobody claimed responsibility for them.

Car bombs and suicide attacks targeting Syrian troops and government institutions have been the hallmark of Islamic militants fighting in Syria alongside rebels trying to topple Assad.

Quneitra is on the cease-fire line between Syria and Israel, which controls most of the Golan Heights after capturing the strategic territory from Syria in the 1967 war.

___

Associated Press writers Albert Aji in Damascus, Syria, and Zeina Karam in Beirut contributed to this report.

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/3d281c11a96b4ad082fe88aa0db04305/Article_2013-01-25-Syria/id-2d4ca137c01e49d48ca321e458e91d68

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Egypt to vaccinate after polio found in sewer

CAIRO (AP) ? Egypt's Health Ministry will carry out a vaccination campaign for children in several Cairo areas after polio was recently found in the capital's sewage.

The World Health Organization says a wild poliovirus was discovered in samples taken from sewage in the impoverished Cairo districts of Ezbet el-Haggana and Dar el-Salam and is believed to have been transmitted from Pakistan.

The Egyptian Health Ministry's head of preventive medicine says the ministry will start vaccinating children under 5 in those neighborhoods on Feb. 3. The campaign will be broadened around Cairo in the first week of March, Amr Qandil said Thursday.

Egypt was declared polio free after its last case in May 2004, and Qandil said no new cases have been reported.

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/egypt-vaccinate-polio-found-sewer-170027617.html

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$700/hr for legal advice vs. $100/hr for a top software engineer ? why?


Prices are of course about supply and demand. The supply of business lawyers is limited, which keeps prices (relatively) high. What keeps supply limited? In practice, bar admission requirements are not the operative bottleneck. There are about twice as many JD's each year as there are jobs for them, and the prices for entry-level legal work (across the whole industry) have fallen far below that of entry-level engineering work. A programmer from a top 100 school with decent but not amazing grades can come out expecting to get a job and making $45k+. A lawyer with similar credentials might go a year without finding a job and end up making $35-40k at a small firm.

So what keeps prices high at the top end? The answer is branding. Business clients don't trust their sensitive legal work to firms that don't have brands. And these firms that have brands don't hire just anyone. Only about 10-15% of fresh JD's end up at a medium to large firm working on corporate law, and the majority of them come out of the top 20 (of 200+) law schools. There are only so many graduates of Stanford and Berkeley to go around, so only so many of them get hired and trained at business law firms, and only so many of those make it to partner and build up years of experience. This is the real supply bottleneck.

You've always seen this phenomenon in banking and consulting (business clients trust their M&A to Goldman, who hires from Harvard and Princeton, maybe Yale if they're really feeling pinched). Now, you're seeing it in engineering too. It used to be that large companies didn't care much about where you went to school or what your grades were. But these days, places like Google, Facebook, etc, disproportionately recruits from the Stanford/MIT set. As a result, salaries at these companies have bid up dramatically. I hear a fourth year engineer at Google can make $250k+. That's comparable to a fourth year lawyer at a top law firm. These salaries were unheard of in engineering back when places like IBM didn't care all that much about Stanford versus CSU.

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In my home country, pretty much one in every 10 people with a degree is a lawyer (if I'm not mistaken, 1/3 of the world lawyers work there). Still, the hourly rates of the good ones are huge (to the tune of the aforementioned 700/h). I'm guessing it's a factor of the number of hours: you don't hire a lawyer for 8h/day - you pay for a few hours, and that is that, so at the end if the month, they sort of "cost the same" as the dev.

I know, it's a totally absurd "theory". Just my 2 cents, anyway

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There are cheaper lawyers, even cheaper business lawyers. See: http://lawfirmsuccess.wordpress.com/2012/04/17/big-news-for-.... The inter-quartile ranges in the study are $200 - $875.

E.g. see: http://www.bizjournals.com/boston/print-edition/2012/04/27/l.... The firm in the article is a 135 lawyer outfit (so solidly on the larger end of mid-sized) with offices in Boston and D.C. and four other Northeastern cities. Partners bill out between $300-$500. (No affiliation, just Google-ed).

Experienced solo practitioners serving individuals in personal matters might charge $100-$150. And if you just need someone with a JD, you can get one for $10/hour on Craigslist.

Then on the other end of the spectrum, you have firms like Wachtell Lipton, who basically only do billion dollar M&A deals. They don't even charge a fee, they charge a percentage of the deal value. People hire them because when you've got a $5 billion deal, you don't care if your legal fees end up in the tens of millions of dollars.

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I seem to recall reading something about this in Freakonomics.

Price is a signal that people use for quality. Nobody wants to get discount legal advice. When things go well, you save a couple of bucks. When things go bad, you can lose a lot more.

This applies to the medical field too.

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I truly hope he is not a great iOS developer because that rate is criminally low.

There is something magical that happens in the 100 pennies between 99 per hour and 100 per hour, a mental chasm that is in reality no different than 98/hr vs 99/hr but we make it into a big deal. Why he chose that number, and why people choose any number for an hourly rate is always a curious thing to me. We pick numbers that we think are palatable with no real regard for the same rigor we put into other processes. Has he tested his rate?

But the idea of hourly rates is accepting of the premise incorrectly...

My guess is that if he is truly great he could make some lawyers jealous. Charging $700/hr may seem far fetched for a developer but making 700/hr is a very different thing. 70K bill to a client for something that took 100 hours to make is a much more salient strategy if you give them what they want.

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And this is probably why. Americans can hire developers from other countries where they can be paid less.

Americans can't hire lawyers from the Czech Republic.

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One of chef Gordon Ramsay's signature dishes is lobster ravioli with celery root cream and shellfish vinaigrette. If you were to hire Ramsay to come and make that dish for a dinner party at your house, I'd guess his hourly rate would be pretty high.

Now suppose you hired Ramsay, but instead of a dinner party it was for your kid's birthday party--and all you want Ramsay to do is boil Oscar Meyer hot dogs and serve then on Safeway hot dog buns with Heinz Ketchup (and only that) on them, and later scoop some store-bought ice cream onto store-bought cake.

This is something you could hire a neighborhood teen to do for $20. Do you think Ramsay is going to do it for $20, because you are asking him to do something much simpler than make his signature food?

Of course not. He's charging for his talent and skill. If you want to misuse that by having him work on something that is trivial and can be done easily by someone with much less talent or skill, that's your problem.

I suspect that's what you are doing with the lawyer. A partner in a major firm has the skill and talent to work on very large and complicated matters that involve big companies and a lot of money--things like major mergers and acquisitions, IPOs, and such.

You are asking him for something that could probably be drafted by a paralegal from his office, and then checked over by a junior associate--the legal equivalent of boiling hot dogs.

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The only thing you need to so to charge $700 an hour is convince a business your services are worth that much, typically by saying that in X time you can deliver Y result which will increase revenue or decrease costs by some number Z, where Z is greater than your rate times X.

There exist at least some software developers who bill $700 an hour or north of that, by the way.

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Is it fair to compare a major law firm with an independent software engineer? At my last company (~3000 employees) when I did billable work they charged the client 300/hour. From a few minutes of googling I am reading that typical lawyer fees (not big law firms) are 200-300 dollar an hour, eg: http://www.topix.com/forum/city/utica-ny/TDV8TU0N3HTLL1UMK.

I've never hired a lawyer and I've never directly contracted myself out so I am by no means an expert on this topic. Great question though.

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Agreed with parent. The burdened rate (that is pay, plus benefits, plus company overhead) for a decent sized software company will easily be $200 - $800 /hr depending on location and company size.

Lawyers are licensed and specialized - the costs associated are passed through to the customers into their rate.

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* Outsourcing hasn't hit the legal profession like it has software development.

* You can't just read a legal book over the weekend and call yourself an attorney.

* Open source and Free software. While lawyers do do some pro-bono work, there's not nearly as much of it being done as there is volunteer work being done by software developers around the world.

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He is very bright and hard working, but can anything justify $700/hr.

Are you going to employ him at the $700/hr rate? If so, you would have justified it. Unless the $700/hr were just a ploy to start a pricing negotiation, rather than what he typically bills, the cost is being justified by the people keeping him in business.

That aside, if he works for a big firm, it'd be fairer to compare his rate to that of what a consulting firm bills out its developers (which is very far north of $100/hr).

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Definitely the right way to think about it - lawyers (or network technicians) as cost-saving tools, rather than direct expenses.

Hire the $2600/hr guy and be done in ten minutes because of his fifteen years experience and deep knowledge of the system; spend $433 very quickly. Pick the $50/hr rent-an-intern and you're down for a day while they're googling the fixes. Spend about the same amount, but avoid the losses from 7+ extra hours of downtime.

Time is money, after all.

Same thing with an after-hours/emergency call to a plumber. Yes, you'll spend twice as much - but that's nothing compared to what it will cost to repair the structural damage to your house because your toilet overflowed and you ended up with three inches of standing water soaking into your everything.

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  > $2600/hr for troubleshooting 
Did they used to work in telecom? That hourly rate really hertz.

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During late 1990s aka. "the dot com boom" there was a severe shortage of corporate lawyers in Silicon Valley due to the deal work exploding with record IPOs, M&A and VC activity etc.

Alongside the shortage, the cost of living in the Bay Area was rising which increased when there was an exodus of lawyers from law firms going to the Bay Area for in-house opportunities at startups. As a result to combat this, Law firms in SF/LA increased their associates pay which was then being matched throughout the rest of the country.

Once this happened it resulted in the increased wages leading to the prices at the level they are because:

- Noone wants to cut their wages - companies also do anything they can to prevent wage cuts even if that means reducing headcount.

- Law firms prestige are linked to money - in order to attract the best talent they compete on price by paying the highest starting salaries and bonuses. Likewise in order to keep the rest of the employees motivated they pay the same salaries across departments. Thus they then had to tackle the issue of the increase overheads so law firms increased their rates to manage increased overheads and to increase profitability of the firm ensuring they keep their best talent around.

However, with that said the reason lawyers are expensive despite the "oversupply" of them is because if you require a law firm with experience that is able to handle complex litigation, transactions etc and is able to allocate a significant amount of man-hours at your case then you're going to have to compensate them in order to do so.

So to answer the question are lawyers expensive, they're not. You can find one to handle basic paper work inexpensively however, if you require an experienced lawyer who can handle complex litigation, complex litigation, transactions etc and is able to allocate a significant amount of man-hours at your case then you're going to have to compensate them in order to do so.

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A failure of a free market for legal services. Anyone can become a professional ios developer, there is free entry/exit in this market. The ABA artificially limits the number of potential lawyers with the Bar and requiring you go to an accredited school.[1] An intelligent individual cannot educate themselves in the legal field in their spare time and get to the point where they can hang their own shingle in the same manner an ios developer can. The number of potential lawyers is further reduced by the patent bar as well and states that do not honor out of state lawyers.

[1] With the exception of a few states where one can still "read law" under a judge or attorney and take the bar.

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That's not it, there are too many attorneys as it is (new grads aren't finding jobs).

One big difference is people brag about a high paid attorney (it's considered a good thing to pay a lot for legal advice) but never brag about how much they pay their developers (it's considered a good thing to pay less for developers).

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I have never seen anyone claim that the ABA bar and accreditation process did not have an effect on wages. That is a tough position to stake out. Do you have any evidence that the ABA's barrier to entry into the legal market does not inflate wages? And/or that patent bar admission does not increase the amount of money a lawyer can charge for their time?

Moreover the "new grads without jobs" is a fairly recent development.* Recent grads with jobs are certainly not billing $700 an hour, so I'm not really sure what that has to do with the original question.

* Given the recent decline in LSAT registrations it is clear that this supply surplus is temporary and is not the new normal.

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All major Silicon Valley law firms (Gunderson, Wilson Sonsini, Fenwick, Cooley) will defer your fees to get you as a client. You should negotiate at least $15k-$20k of deferral of fees if you are a startup, which means you won't cut them a check until/unless you get financed. They should also offer you a discount on their normal rates of 10-20%. And they may ask for warrants; up to you to issue these. They may pound sand, but if they really want those, then you should be getting a lot of legal work for free.

The vast majority of legal work they do for you as a startup is form work, so don't ever pay a partner more than a half hour to review it. 90% of the work is literally changing names in a document: incorporation docs, board notes, issuance of options, option plan, assignments of IP, and financing docs should all be standardized. I know this because I worked at Gunderson as an attorney.

What you want from startup lawyers is a clean form that your investors have seen before. Don't do anything that makes an investor think twice. Any form from the firms I mentioned above will do.

Net net: you shouldn't worry about $700/hour. It's too much, you shouldn't be hiring that particular attorney, and even if you do owe thousands of dollars, you shouldn't have to pay it until you're financed (which means you have the cash anyway).

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Is it feasible to program a machine learning system (such as Watson?) to run a straightforward legal case, with a natural language interface?

Presumably the majority of "bread and butter" legal cases don't require an innovative step? Rather, they involve rolling out a set of standard arguments and countering a set of standard arguments put forward by the opposition, a bit like a chess game? I'm talking straighforward stuff, rather than the types of cases that set legal precedent.

If so, wouldn't it be a case of cramming a machine full of the necessary legal information, then doing a search to navigate a path to a winning position? If a winning position with the required certainty could not be found by the machine, the legal advice might be "call a human lawyer".

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Is it feasible to program a machine learning system (such as Watson?) to run a straightforward legal case, with a natural language interface?

The law is full of context and interpretation details. One example my business constantly runs into is weather or not we have to register as a 'foreign business" when we do business in other states (my business is an engineering consulting business that does work in many states, sometimes requiring travel, sometimes not).

All of the states we looked into have the same basic wording tin the foreign business statue, but they interpret it different - for some states, you only have to register is you maintain an office presence; for some states you have to register only if you spend a significant amount of time in the state, other states you have to register if the money originates in the state, even if you never set foot there.

I'd love to see someone with ML or AI experience address the challenges involved in this. I would imagine it would be possible, but require a shitload of work, and even then may require some review.

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From my reading, context and interpretation were two domains that IBM specifically had to target with Watson [1], to get it to process natural language. If Jeopardy is solved, legal advocacy might be a next harder problem?

Like Jeopardy, the task involves a lot of "soft" information, but results in an easy to measure pass/fail decision. It could be run in real-time, as an advocate in a courtroom, or off-line as a legal adviser. Also like Jeopardy, it offers the opportunity of a public contest, and the associated PR.

[1] http://www.research.ibm.com/deepqa/faq.shtml

---

Edit:

It seems like at least one person inside IBM is already thinking this way. To quote [2]:

"Law, Patent and Trademarks"

"Not only could a Watson-like capability minimize filing through existing databases on laws, prior cases, rulings, hearings, opinions, it could also be used as a method of testing witness questions. or suggest a series of inquiries and questions for litigation. It could be used to simulate certain judges, prosecution and defense lawyers, based on prior cases."

"A Watson-like system could generate questions for a prospective patent claim based on it's ingestion of the entire patent and trademark database."

[2] https://www-304.ibm.com/connections/blogs/davidian/entry/whe...

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If the rules of interpretation (one might even say that this is the definition of 'context' in this sense) can be strictly defined (formalized), e.g. what you wrote:

> for some states, you only have to register is you maintain an office presence; for some states you have to register only if you spend a significant amount of time in the state, [...]

then this is doable, in principle. But the overall project and required workload would indeed be vast.. I wonder how much one might have to work to have some kind of a working PoC.. NLTK and their computational linguistics book / python tutorial might be a good start. e.g. http://nltk.org/book/ch10.html - we can do things like

dt = nltk.DiscourseTester(['A student dances', 'Every student is a person'])

dt.add_sentence('No person dances', consistchk=True)

- throws error 'Inconsistent discourse ..[list of predicates etc]'

dt.retract_sentence('No person dances', verbose=True)

- outputs

Current sentences are

s0: A student dances

s1: Every student is a person

But scaling this / making it work for something more than these simple linguistic tasks.. quite an undertaking! In any case, the field in question (and the task at hand) is very interesting, and I hope that lots of interesting stuff will be done in comp.linguistics / nlp in the near future.

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Well first off, he can value his time however much he wants. As a partner at a major law firm in SV, he's incredibly busy so his time is extremely valuable (any distraction like consulting only makes sense at a rate of ~700 per hour for him) and as a partner, he's probably making millions at the firm. If he spent 5 more hours at the firm and was able to generate a multiple of what you're paying him for 5 hours of work (3500), then he's probably not charging enough, right?

If you want general legal advice for startups, talk to startup-friendly law firms. Many have packages where you give up 1-2 thousand bucks only for X number of hours + turning your startup into an INC or LLC or whatever + a small equity stake. For other law firms, you'll just have to talk to them and figure out what their rates are. Most are more in the 50-100 dollar range. Don't skimp on legal expenses, if you get sued for a few million dollars, you'll regret skimping on paying a better lawyer a few thousand bucks more.

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* law firms are inefficient in their use of technology

* legal work is more likely to be boring, so you have to pay people more to do it (this is related to the first point above)

* if an app has a bug, it's usually easy to spot - if a contract has a bug, you may never know about it until it bites you. so you pay for the best attorney you can get, in the hopes of getting fewer bugs

* lawyers are more at the beck and call of their clients - really need something done overnight or over the weekend? they'll do it (though they'll resent you for it)

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Inefficiency is no excuse.

I'm sure there are as many lawyers who love or hate their job as there are developers that do... some people (like myself) love doing the work but I have many colleagues who find it tedius and boring. I would say also not an excuse.

Security or data integrity flaws are no more apparent than contract holes, and often are equally as disruptive.

Developers aren't at the beck and call? Lol I would say that's a misconception. Late nights and weekends are NO stranger to developers. Especially in actual companies (vs independent) where deadlines are approaching its very common to be strongly encouraged (read: required) to work weekends.

It's more likely that the combination of cheap alternatives (outsourcing, developer living in a carboard box in san diego, etc) are numerous and you don't need indepth knowledge to click buttons on your program to see it works like you wanted it to but you do need all that knowledge to look at a contract and confirm its legitimacy.

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i'm not trying to make excuses for lawyers, i'm just providing you with reasons.

and as someone who's been both a developer and a lawyer, lawyers are much more at the beck and call of clients. software engineers generally know when they have deadlines approaching. lawyers get informed Friday night of a deadline they have Monday morning (transactional lawyers, that is).

your last sentence is precisely the point i was making re bugs.

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"legal work is more likely to be boring, so you have to pay people more to do it"

Sweeping floors and cleaning toilets is also pretty boring, but I don't see anyone paying janitors more because of it.

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Because if they were paid anywhere close to the same amount, who would choose to be a lawyer? Being a software engineers is way more fun! =)

Regardless, I wouldn't worry about it because software engineers will be automating away lawyers soon anyway. ;)

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1. A top iOS developer usually costs more - between $150/hr and $200/hr in my experience. In the valley, it might be even more. Maybe your guy should be charging more, maybe he doesn't feel like it! A lot of guys I've worked with don't realize how much they're worth. Either way, hold on to him and give him a bonus when he finishes the project on time.

2. I think you're paying $700/hr because you 1) went straight for a partner and 2) you went straight for a major law firm in the valley. It's also a mindset difference. I think lawyers charge based on the value they add, not the hours they work, whereas developers typically think about hours. A developer who writes a piece of code that saves you $1M should charge $100k for it, and a lawyer probably would. On the other hand, your developer would probably charge you 1.5 hrs * $100 / hr. :) * Full disclosure: I'm a developer and I have lawyer friends, but

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In addition to the other reasons here, I think when it comes to lawyers and doctors, people typically want "the best".

Are you willing to take a risk with your health or getting into legal trouble?

So the price of the best people just keeps going up and up.

With developers, there is more of a concept of "good enough". As long as you find someone that can build the thing and it works, that's good enough.

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1. Lawyers incur more liability with their work.

2. The quantity of workload they provide per job is less, thus pricing is more dense (i.e. companies realize programmers work thousands of hours for a project and that the project viability would collapse at $700/hr)

3. In many cases you have no choice but to hire a lawyer, while more often you can say no to a programmer should the economics not support the project.

4. A lawyer has to go to school for approx. 6 to 8 years (at least in Canada) while programmers have a wide variety of education levels.

I'm sure I could list more...

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software eng did/does not have to

go to law school (or take any college really)

pass the bar (or any certification at all)

maintain his membership in bar (or any level of professional conduct or accountability)

be legally responsible for the work he performs (in same way lawyers, doctors and other accredited / certification passing professions must)

See also supply and demand. Every half skilled monkey can be an iOS developer (or any kind of developer. Honestly, it's really not that hard. Compared to lawyering, doctoring. Also developer != architect, lead, technical manager, entrepreneur, etc which are all much more difficult. OTOH people who couldn't hack EE or that drop out of college can be successful developers.)

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You want to charge $700 / hour for programming? You want to be a professional in the same sense as a doctor or a lawyer? Fine!

1. Get a PhD in computer science or software engineering. 2. Submit to state licensing, certifications, fees, examinations and codes of conduct. 3. Buy liabilty insurance in case your screw-ups hurt someone and they sue your incompetent ass.

Look, doctors and lawyers have been around at least since civilization arose, say six to ten thousand years. Programming as a profession independent of, say, doing math or building weapons systems or accounting has been around only since the 1950s, and it wasn't till the 1960s that large numbers of people got paid to do nothing but programming.

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I think it's already been pointed out but I'll clarify a little more.

You've hired an independent developer, at a reasonable rate.

Hiring a lawyer from a law firm, comes at the rate of the firm. He bring to the table the resources of a large law firm, and along with the cost of operating a law firm. In addition to his nice salary.

If you had hired an tech consulting firm you'd be looking a similar hourly rate if you brought in a partner.

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Because software people don't ask for more.

developer auction offers I'm getting is 85k to 130k so far, for someone with close to 10 year experience in the valley! wtf

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Source: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5112837

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